🔗 Share this article Will the Scottish team finally end their All Blacks hoodoo? The All Blacks introduced several modifications to the team that defeated Ireland Autumn Nations Series: Scotland v New Zealand Venue: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, the Scottish capital Date: this weekend Time: 15:10 GMT The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to reflect the historic accomplishment by Scotland. Having beaten three home nations, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a Test. A contemporary reporter was nearly overcome with excitement. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain." Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but clear signs that maybe one was not far off. A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, same story. Five more years went by and, yes, the pattern continued. Recent History Two decades of matches later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, Auckland to Cardiff - locations have varied but results remain consistent. In his time in the job, Gregor Townsend has ended losing runs in Paris, Cardiff and Twickenham, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos. Team News Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way. Via their excellence, physical dominance, their chicanery, they secure victory. We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that supporters maintained for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality. Key Absences Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback. The prop has been absent since spring, but he's exceptional and if available then his absence from play would not have been too worrying. During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations. Squad Depth Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of limited game time. And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class. Coaching Choices The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power. The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23. Historical Context Graham crossed the line in the narrow loss to the All Blacks in the previous encounter Against Ireland, the All Blacks secured the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge secured victory. That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, set-piece issues. Statistical Analysis For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. Across international matches recently, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and 60 in the second half. They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps. Required Performance During their last meeting, they struck twice in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily. The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland needs sustained pressure from the start - and keep it there. Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against the All Blacks. Conclusion Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over. But what if everything does go right? A blistering beginning. A raucous crowd. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham. Fantasy rugby, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.